Two headwinds that will make things look worse going forward.

A year ago tame PCE MoM data will fall off from the YoY calculation, putting upside pressure on the YoY levels.

• May 2024, 0.0%
• June 2024, 0.1%
• July 2024, 0.2%
• August 2024, 0.1%
• September 2024, 0.2%
• October 2024, 0.2%

3- month average: 0.1%
6-month average: 0.13%

For the core MoM over the next 6-months

• May 2024, 0.1%
• June 2024, 0.2%
• July 2024, 0.2%
• August 2024, 0.1%
• September 2024, 0.3%
• October 2024, 0.3%

3-month average of core PCE: 1.67%
6-month average of core PCE: 0.2%

MoM gains of 0.2% or more for headline and core data will mathematically move the YoY up for the headline and the core measures.

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