Willy Adames

Brewers shortstop Willy Adames had a down 12 months in 2023, relative to his personal requirements. However right here within the early components of the 2024 season, he’s appeared extra just like the pre-2023 model of himself. Even higher than that, actually.

Adames has been pretty constant in being above common on the plate. That has been largely as a consequence of his energy output and regardless of some excessive strikeout totals. He additionally steals a number of bases and has been thought of sturdy on protection at a premium place. The glovework was a bit extra contested earlier in his profession however the reward has change into extra unanimous over time.

He debuted with the Rays in 2018, stepping into 85 video games that 12 months. He struck out in 29.4% of his plate appearances but additionally launched 10 residence runs in that point. His .278/.348/.406 batting line translated to a 110 wRC+, indicating he was 10% above league common.

In his first full season in 2019, he bought into 152 video games and doubled his residence run whole to twenty. Nevertheless, since that was the “juiced ball” season and the grading curve was thrown off, he was truly thought of barely under common with a 99 wRC+. Within the small pattern of the shortened 2020 season, he hit one other eight homers and slashed .259 .332 .481 for a wRC+ of 126. The subsequent two full seasons noticed him proceed to strike out an honest quantity, however with residence run tallies of 25 and 31, resulting in a wRC+ of 120 and 109 in these campaigns. He spent most of these two years with the Brewers after being traded early within the 2021 season.

As talked about up high, there was a dip in 2023, which appears like it might have been largely about luck. His 11.1% stroll charge was truly a profession excessive and his 25.9% strikeout charge was a profession low. The 24 residence runs had been a tad decrease than the earlier two seasons, however not by a lot. However when the ball didn’t go over the fence, his batting common was simply .259. That was nearly 40 factors under final 12 months’s .297 league-wide batting common on balls in play and under his profession charge of .311. He completed the 12 months with a line of .217/.310/.407 and a 94 wRC+.

That won’t have been totally dangerous fortune, as his batted ball metrics additionally dipped alongside his outcomes. His common exit velocity was 87.4 miles per hour final 12 months, whereas he was between 88.5 and 89.5 within the earlier 4 campaigns. His 36.5% exhausting hit charge was additionally down, as he completed between 40.5% and 44.7% within the three prior years.

Maybe the dearth of zip partially explains why he was discovering so many gloves final 12 months, however he’s had no such issues right here in 2024. By his first 30 video games this 12 months, he has a .313 BABIP, an enormous turnaround from final 12 months and proper in step with his profession mark. His common exit velocity is again up, at present at 89.5 miles per hour for the 12 months. His exhausting hit charge has additionally recovered, at present at 42.7% this season. He already has six residence runs whereas his 12.7% stroll charge and 20.1% strikeout charge are each profession bests. His .278/.373/.496 batting line interprets to an enormous 147 wRC+.

Though the Statcast metrics considerably supported his decline in outcomes final 12 months, the 2023 season appears like a transparent outlier in comparison with the remainder of his profession. Maybe Adames was enjoying by way of some sort of harm that was tugging him down final 12 months. He was struck within the head by a foul ball within the dugout in late Might and went on the concussion-related injured record, returning per week later. He was hitting simply .205/.292/.384 earlier than that harm, nevertheless, with a .234 BABIP. After his return, his BABIP crept as much as .274 as he slashed .223/.318/.418 the remainder of the way in which.

Whatever the trigger, the 2023 dip appears to be within the rear-view mirror now. His Statcast metrics are again to pre-2023 ranges and his general outcomes have been even higher, significantly with that improved plate self-discipline. Even when he doesn’t preserve this wonderful type all through the top of the 12 months, a bounceback on the plate ought to set him up properly as he heads into free company this winter.

When it comes to his glovework, Defensive Runs Saved is a long-time fan. That metric gave Adames a -8 in his rookie debut however has been in constructive territory in every season since. Outs Above Common took longer to return round, giving Adames a unfavorable grade in three of 4 years from 2018 to 2021. However he was given grades of +10 and +16 within the final two campaigns, with a mark of +4 already right here this 12 months. His +29 OAA because the begin of 2022 is second amongst all huge league shortstops, trailing solely Dansby Swanson. His 17 DRS in that point is fourth within the league amongst shortstops.

Adames has roughly common dash pace however can steal a number of bases, as talked about. He has between 4 and eight steals in every full season of his profession, with 4 already within the early components of this 12 months.

He additionally has a robust monitor document when it comes to well being. He had the aforementioned stint on the concussion IL final 12 months, and beforehand missed about three weeks as a consequence of a excessive left ankle sprain in 2022 and about two weeks in 2021 as a consequence of a left quad pressure, however that’s it. Aside from his rookie season, when he was continuously optioned to the minors, he’s by no means performed lower than 139 video games in a full season.

All of those substances ought to come collectively properly for Adames this winter. The newest offseason was icy for the gamers and it’s exhausting to understand how a lot to reset expectations due to it, however on a regular basis shortstops are inclined to receives a commission. For the reason that finish of the 2021 season, 9 totally different nine-figure contracts have been given to free agent shortstops. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker reveals three for gamers going into their age-29 seasons:

Adames goes to be the identical age because the Swanson-Báez-Story trio, heading into his age-29 season, however may probably be in a greater place than any of that three. Story had proven great upside however limped into free company with a 98 wRC+ in his stroll 12 months and considerations round his throwing elbow. Swanson had a superb defensive popularity however inconsistent offense, with simply two full seasons the place his wRC+ was above common. Báez additionally had fluctuating offense and mounting strikeout considerations, getting punched out at a 33.6% clip in his stroll 12 months.

The Brewers had been certainly give Adames a qualifying supply at season’s finish, which he’ll reject. Báez was spared a QO since he was traded midseason however Swanson and Story every rejected QOs and had been due to this fact tied to the related penalties.

Adames might not be an MVP candidate. In truth, he’s bizarrely by no means even been an All-Star. However there’s a steadiness to his manufacturing. He’s by no means had greater than 4.4 wins above substitute in a season, per FanGraphs, however he’s additionally been price at the least 3.1 fWAR in every full season. He’s already at 1.7 fWAR right here in 2024.

As we noticed in the newest winter, the market may be affected by issues past a participant’s management, reminiscent of TV rights offers and luxurious tax calculations. However Adames is at present doing the whole lot in his energy to set himself up effectively for the upcoming offseason. The longer he retains it up, the extra he’ll make 2023 appear to be a distant reminiscence.