The Nice Faculty House Run Chase

On Saturday afternoon, Charlie Condon hit a house run off Texas A&M starter Tanner Jones. Condon, who’d already reached on a fielder’s alternative and scored earlier within the inning, put Georgia up 9-0 on the Aggies within the prime of the primary inning. Even on the street in opposition to the no. 1 staff within the nation, a nine-run first-inning lead looks as if an excellent omen.

Sadly for Condon, Jace LaViolette homered within the backside of the primary, and Braden Montgomery added a dinger within the backside of the third. After one inning, the Aggies had minimize the result in 9-8; by the seventh, they’d scored 19 unanswered runs, sufficient to invoke the SEC’s mercy rule and finish the sport. (This was the primary sport of a doubleheader, by the way in which, and there have been 17 runs within the first inning.)

Condon, LaViolette, and Montgomery are engaged in a historic five-player house run chase. As just lately as 2015, Andrew Benintendi of Arkansas wowed the nation by main Division I with 20 house runs. In 2024, 13 gamers ended April with not less than 20 house runs.

The highest 5 house run hitters in Division I are, maybe not so coincidentally, additionally the highest 5 gamers in house runs per sport.

Condon leads of the bunch; he simply turned Georgia’s all-time profession house run chief somewhat greater than midway by his sophomore season. However by advantage of getting redshirted in 2022, he’s eligible for the draft, and has performed his manner — together with Caglianone and some others — into the dialog for the highest general decide.

My longstanding dislike for spending excessive picks on first basemen being what it’s, these guys might be the exception that proves the rule. For starters, Condon has performed extra outfield than first this 12 months, and Caglianone — along with having plus-plus energy — can be one of many prime left-handed pitchers within the draft. (I’ve fielded a number of questions in regards to the Gators’ two-way star from a visibly sweaty Ben Lindbergh, famous Shohei Ohtani superfan and faculty baseball ignoramus.)

They usually’re on a unique degree of physicality from the likes of Spencer Torkelson and Andrew Vaughn. Condon is 6-foot-6, 216 kilos. Caglianone, at 6-foot-5, 245, is in that proud custom (after Pete Alonso and Mike Zunino) of Gators sluggers who spend all offseason within the squat rack. LaViolette (6-foot-5, 228) is an enormous fella as nicely, although he’s not draft-eligible this 12 months.

We’re in the midst of an offensive explosion in college baseball. After swinging too far into the offense-suppressing realm a decade in the past, gear guidelines have come again to favor hitters. The shortening of the draft and loosening of NIL guidelines has introduced gamers into the school sport who most likely would’ve gone professional out of highschool 5 to 10 years in the past.

But it surely’s value remembering that the identical advances in coaching and approach that prompted the house run explosion in professional baseball a couple of years in the past are at play in faculty. (Condon and Caglianone each play for coaches — Wes Johnson and Kevin O’Sullivan, respectively — who’ve been on the progressive finish of the participant growth curve. These will not be the bunt-obsessed West Coast curmudgeons who dominated the game a era in the past.) And as gamers like Condon and Caglianone unlock these advances the way in which Alonso, Aaron Judge, and others have, keep in mind that these monumental undergraduates will not be dealing with skilled pitchers, however children who prime out at 92 mph or have hassle finding their fastballs.

Condon has 14 dingers in 21 convention video games and 16 in 23 non-conference video games, so it’s not like he’s padding his numbers in opposition to Alabama Directional Lecturers’ Faculty (Go Bunny Rabbits!). However Condon is a future massive leaguer, and plenty of of his opponents will go professional in one thing aside from sports activities.

In Division I historical past, solely 22 gamers have hit 31 or extra house runs in a season; a few of the extra memorable names on the listing embody Mark McGwire, J.D. Drew, Kris Bryant, Troy Glaus, and Lance Berkman. BYU’s Mike Wiles did it twice. However as in each different side of baseball, if not humanity at massive, the may of human accomplishment is tempered by the affect of expertise.

In 1998, the NCAA changed the rules governing aluminum bats, narrowing the utmost barrel measurement and growing the minimal weight-to-length ratio. Of these 23 prime particular person house run-hitting seasons, 14 got here earlier than the top of the Gorilla Ball period; six of these 14 seasons got here within the final Gorilla Ball season, 1997. In 2011, the NCAA modified the bat specs once more, mandating a diminished coefficient of restitution (physics jargon for springiness) in composite bat development. These BBCOR bats have been in use for greater than a decade, and not less than initially batted balls stayed within the yard.

Bryant set the BBCOR-era single-season house run document in 2013, when he hit 31 dingers in 62 video games. That document stood for 9 years, till Ivan Melendez of Texas hit 32 in 65 video games in 2022. The very subsequent 12 months, Caglianone hit 33 in 71 video games.

I might be astonished if Condon didn’t smash that document, probably as early as this weekend. The one-season post-Gorilla Ball document is certain to come back down as nicely; that’s 34 dingers in 70 video games, by Daylan Holt of Texas A&M in 1999. Caglianone is a fairly good guess to turn into the second participant ever with a number of 30-homer seasons in Division I; final 12 months, he was helped by Florida making deep runs in each the SEC and NCAA tournaments. However even when the Gators don’t play 71 video games this season, Caglianone’s HR/G ratio is up 28% from final 12 months.

So now we’re within the territory of shelling out with qualifiers; these are a few of the greatest house run-hitting seasons in faculty baseball historical past, full cease. Listed here are Condon and Caglianone, together with the 4 40-homer seasons in Division I historical past, and the opposite data this pair (or LaViolette and Montgomery) can nonetheless chase down.

That’s proper, Condon is hitting extra house runs per sport than Pete Incaviglia, who got here out of the womb as a 34-year-old and was hitting golf balls with a rocket launcher. The mid-to-late Eighties had been fairly a time to be an Oklahoma State Cowboy, by the way in which. Incaviglia broke the house run document in 1985; in 1987, Robin Ventura had a record-setting 58-game hitting streak; in 1988, Barry Sanders broke the single-season data for touchdowns and dashing yards. All three stay Division I data.

The query now could be how far can Condon and Caglianone advance up the listing? That is determined by how nicely their groups do.

Incaviglia, Holt, and Caglianone final 12 months all made it to the Faculty World Collection and ended up taking part in not less than 70 video games. (Ledbetter’s 1982 Seminoles in some way managed to play 74 video games with out making it out of a regional; that may not occur as of late.)

What number of video games do Caglianone and Condon have left? Properly, someplace between about 10 and about 30.

Each groups have three remaining weekend convention collection; Georgia’s nonconference schedule is finished, whereas Florida has a midweek sport in opposition to USF to play. Let’s assume none of these video games get rained out or canceled.

After that it will get tough, as a result of postseason video games rely towards NCAA single-season stats, and we’ve no clue what number of postseason video games both staff goes to play. And it’s all of the extra sophisticated as a result of each the convention and NCAA tournaments change format a number of occasions whereas in progress.

The SEC Match options the 2 division winners and the groups with the subsequent 10 finest convention data. The highest 4 seeds get a bye, whereas the opposite eight groups play single-elimination video games to get to the double-elimination spherical of eight. As soon as the sector is winnowed to 4 groups, single-elimination play resumes. In brief, relying on seeding, a staff may win the SEC Match in as few as 4 video games or lose it in as many as six. Texas A&M really did the latter final 12 months, coming by the play-in spherical and the losers’ bracket to succeed in the ultimate, the place the Aggies misplaced to Vanderbilt.

Then there’s the NCAA Match, which is a four-team, double-elimination regional, adopted by a best-of-three Tremendous Regional, adopted by the Faculty World Collection, which is a four-team double-elimination spherical adopted by one other best-of-three last. A profitable NCAA Match run may take as few as 10 video games or as many as 16.

What makes issues somewhat extra sophisticated is that each Georgia and Florida are simply OK this 12 months. I do know, Florida is coming off a nationwide runner-up season, however shedding 4 top-100 picks to the draft, together with Wyatt Langford, will set any staff again.

I’m assured of the next issues: Each Georgia and Florida will make the convention match however neither will get a bye. Proper now, Georgia is the no. 8 seed, 5 video games behind the closest first-round bye with 9 convention video games to play. Florida is tied with Alabama for the no. 9/10 spot, and has a three-game lead on Thirteenth-place Missouri.

The newest bracket projections at each D1Baseball and Baseball America have Georgia as a no. 2 regional seed and Florida as a no. 3 regional seed. (Each publications have Florida within the Stillwater Regional, which suggests Oklahoma State may have an opportunity to guard Inky’s document by taking Caglianone off the board early.) Barring one thing like a 1-9 end, Georgia might be protected, however Florida is on the bubble.

So if we assume that each gamers’ house run charges keep fixed, what number of dingers will they hit? Properly, based mostly on this large unfold of potential video games performed, I laid out 4 eventualities. First, each groups play the minimal cheap potential variety of video games, shedding each postseason sport they play. Within the second state of affairs (HSW under), each groups make the convention and NCAA tournaments, however as soon as there the higher-seeded staff wins each sport. In state of affairs no. 3, every staff performs a complete of 10 postseason video games, which means both a deep convention match run or advancing to the Tremendous Regionals. And at last, I projected a house run whole if Georgia or Florida makes a run to the ultimate of each the SEC Match and the Faculty World Collection, and makes use of up each potential sport within the losers’ bracket on the way in which.

All informed, it appears to be like possible that Caglianone will match his house run whole from final 12 months, whereas Condon has a terrific probability of posting the primary 40-homer season Division I has seen because the Gorilla Bat period.

That’s fairly unimaginable stuff, as any faculty baseball fan already is aware of. However each time I write about faculty baseball there’s an irascible minority of commenters who pipe as much as say that no person cares. Leaving apart the highly effective proof across the Southeast each weekend that many lots of of hundreds of individuals care deeply about SEC baseball, I do really feel some obligation to tie this story again to those two gamers’ skilled potential.

Sadly, the historic document has supplied a strong object lesson in why it’d be silly to strive. As a result of the final two 40-homer seasons in Division I got here in the identical 12 months, 1997, courtesy of Lance Berkman and Brandon Larson.

These two beefy sluggers had been onerous to separate in 1997. They performed pretty shut collectively geographically — Berkman at Rice, Larson at LSU — for groups that met within the Faculty World Collection and performed a sport determined by one run. When the draft got here round, Larson was drafted simply two spots forward of Berkman within the first spherical.

Absolutely you bear in mind Berkman’s profession: six All-Star appearances, 4 top-five MVP finishes, a World Collection with the Cardinals in 2011. Mainly your definitional Corridor of Very Good profession. In the event you supplied that profession to both Condon or Caglianone now, they’d seize it with each palms with out asking what the catch is. (The catch, clearly, is that your first-born baby is mine until you possibly can guess my title.)

However maybe you’re scratching your head making an attempt to recollect Larson. That’s as a result of, regardless of having comparable energy hitting data in faculty gamers, Berkman and Larson couldn’t have been extra totally different within the execs.

What ought to we make of this McGwire-and-Sosa of the trendy SEC? Properly, we should always sit again and revel in it whereas it lasts. And hope whichever staff drafts them finally ends up with extra Berkman and fewer Larson.