The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts.

In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.

CPI Y/Y

• 2.6% (4%)
• 2.5% (35%)
• 2.4% (54%) – consensus
• 2.3% (6%)

CPI M/M

• 0.3% (61%) – consensus
• 0.2% (38%)
• 0.1% (1%)

Core CPI Y/Y

• 2.7% (4%)
• 2.6% (8%)
• 2.5% (69%) – consensus
• 2.4% (19%)

Core CPI M/M

• 0.4% (1%)
• 0.3% (45%)
• 0.2% (54%) – consensus

Given the focus on the war, the market will likely shrug off a soft report since the data is already seen as old news. On the other hand, a hotter-than-expected report could trigger some risk aversion, as investors might worry that if inflation was already picking up before the war began, higher oil prices could make it even worse going forward.