Today we don’t have much on the agenda in terms of notable data releases other than the US ADP report. The US ADP is
expected at 105K vs. 77K prior. The last report was softer than expected with
the agency noting that “policy uncertainty and a slowdown in consumer spending
might have led to layoffs or a slowdown in hiring”. Their data, combined with
other recent indicators, suggests a hiring hesitancy among employers as they
assess the economic climate ahead.

I personally think that the data doesn’t matter much this week as the focus remains on tariffs. The current data is backward looking because it’s reflecting the impact of these months of fear and uncertainty. Today’s reciprocal tariffs announcement, on the other hand, will have a forward looking impact. Worse than expected news and we might head into a recession (without Fed’s support), while better than expected outcome should see the market pricing out growth fears (all else being equal).

Central bank speakers:

• 10:30 GMT/06:30 ET – ECB’s Schnabel (hawk – voter)
• 14:05 GMT/10:05 ET – ECB’s Lane (neutral – voter)
• 19:45 GMT/15:45 ET – ECB’s Lagarde (neutral – voter)
• 20:30 GMT/16:30 ET – Fed’s Kugler (dove – voter)