Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 66 bps (79% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• ECB: 25 bps (87% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• BoE: 53 bps (73% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• BoC: 33 bps (62% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• RBA: 80 bps (91% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• RBNZ: 32 bps (78% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• SNB: 12 bps (78% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 15 bps (97% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

The most notable change is of course on the Fed. The catalyst was dovish comments from Fed’s Bowman last Monday where she even suggested a rate cut in July if inflation were to be muted. She’s been a hawk until then, so the market took those comments as a signal.

There wasn’t even any strong pushback from Fed Chair Powell as he acknowledged that anything can happen and they remain data dependent.

We have the US ISM PMIs, the US NFP and the US CPI before the July FOMC meeting and those reports will influence interest rates expectations.

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