It’s jobs day in the US and while markets are still fixated on US-Iran developments, the non-farm payrolls data will be a key risk event to look out for in wrapping up the week. The consensus is for a +62k headline print with the unemployment rate holding at 4.3%. That will continue to keep things in check in the labour market as market players focus on inflation pressures instead. However, is there room for any surprises?
Let’s see what key analysts have to say ahead of the report later.
BofA
– “After job growth came in above all expectations in March, we look for April NFP to print at a solid 80k (private: 90k), which would be comfortably above breakeven. Education & health will continue to lead job gains. Risks are tilted to the upside, with claims
remaining benign and the weekly ADP data inflecting upwards.”
– “We expect the u-rate to remain at 4.3%, with risk of rounding down to 4.2% along with LFPR at 61.9%. A 4.3% or lower u-rate would leave the Fed comfortably on hold in the near term amid rising inflation risks.”
Goldman Sachs
– “We forecast an above-consensus 75k increase in payrolls in April and a flat 4.3% unemployment rate. Big data indicators of job growth were solid, layoffs remained low, and job openings have held steady.”
– “On the positive side, the big data indicators of job growth we track were solid and higher frequency
measures of layoffs remained low. On the negative side, we expect a 5k decline in government payrolls – reflecting a 10k decline in federal government payrolls that is partly offset by a 5k increase in state and
local government payrolls.”
Morgan Stanley
– “Falling jobless claims signal even slower layoffs and a slightly faster reemployment rate at the start of
April. We forecast payrolls rose 70k, with private payrolls rising 80k, about in line with the 1Q average
pace.”
– “That employment growth is close to our estimate of the payroll pace consistent with a flat unemployment rate, and the unemployment rate moves sideways, 4.3% but on the cusp of a 4.2%.”
And now on to some of the outlier calls:
Barclays
– “Flattening is likely to be driven by a few factors, including the end of March’s nurses strike, unwinding
weather effects, and payback for March’s unusually favorable birth-death adjustments. With government
payrolls expected to see no gain (0k) in the aftermath of Q4’s “fork in the road” layoffs, we also expect a flat
reading for private payroll employment.”
– “We expect the unemployment rate to continue to round to 4.3% in April, after March’s decline from 4.441%
to 4.256%. This reflects our view that April’s job gain will come roughly in line with the current breakeven
pace.”
– “Although outlook
uncertainty has intensified in recent weeks, we retain our baseline that the unemployment rate will
gradually track downward over the course of 2026, with slow job gains still somewhat exceeding the
modest breakeven pace.”
Citi
– “Our US economists are forecasting a print well below consensus at -15k vs +65k, driven by ongoing volatility and immigration changes, resulting in a jump in unemployment from 4.3% to 4.4%. The overarching theme of this volatile data, like February’s blowout report of +178k, is that Fed officials have begun to discount these readings.”
– “Against this backdrop, our economists continue to expect three 25 bps cuts in September, October, and December, as the Fed prioritizes labor condition trends over headline volatility.”
