Weekly update on interest rate expectations

Rate cuts by year-end

  • Fed: 63 bps (95% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • ECB: 81 bps (96% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoE: 52 bps (95% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoC: 60 bps (57% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBA: 52 bps (82% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBNZ: 72 bps (96% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • SNB: 35 bps (92% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

  • BoJ: 34 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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