The session so far has been absolutely boring given the lack of key economic data and limited newsflow. This rangebound price action might continue into the weekend as we have the risk of potential gaps on Monday open. That could happen on escalation or de-escalation news.
The base case remains a de-escalation and that’s what the market has been leaning onto with oil prices still trading around last Friday’s levels and risk sentiment recovering from the lows. Nonetheless, from a risk management perspective, traders might prefer to hold it out into the weekend and see how things evolve.
Today we still have a key meeting in Geneva where the Iranian Foreign Minister will meet European counterparts to find a diplomatic solution. Strong signals of de-escalation could still give risk assets a boost. The meeting is scheduled to start around 13:45 GMT/09:45 ET.
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