Justin Verlander reportedly drew interest from several suitors over the offseason, but the Astros, his former team, were the only club known to have spoken with the three-time Cy Young winner before he signed a one-year, $15MM contract with the Giants. Yet, a new story from The Athletic’s Chandler Rome suggests a reunion between Verlander and Houston was never even close to a reality. Although the two sides kept in touch over the winter – Verlander told Rome he spoke with owner Jim Crane “a lot” and that they had “mutual interest” in a deal – the Astros did not make the veteran an offer.

According to Verlander, he continued his talks with Crane after the Giants made it clear they were interested in his services. At that point, however, Verlander says Crane told him that the Astros were not “even in a place to make an offer.” To some, this might not come as much of a surprise. After all, one could argue that the writing was on the wall for Verlander in Houston as soon as the Astros left him off their postseason roster last October. On the other hand, Verlander himself did not see it that way. He told Rome that he did not truly consider, at that time, the possibility that his final start with the Astros last season might be his final ever outing with the club.

The Astros paid the luxury tax for the first time in 2024. While Crane told reporters (including Rome) in November that the team had “the wherewithal” to continue spending at the same level in 2025, Houston ultimately ended up cutting payroll significantly. According to the estimates from RosterResource, the club’s payroll is $25MM lower right now than it was at the end of last season, while their luxury tax payroll is about $3.5MM below the first tax threshold. It’s not as if GM Dana Brown had no money to spend this past offseason; he signed Christian Walker to a three-year, $60MM deal. However, the Astros also let Alex Bregman walk and shaved payroll by trading Kyle Tucker. Meanwhile, Brown’s only notable addition to a starting rotation that certainly could have used some help was Hayden Wesneski, acquired in the Tucker trade. The 27-year-old right-hander comes with promise and former top prospect upside, but he has never started more than 11 games in a season. He is scheduled to make his Astros debut this evening against the Giants.

All that to say, it sure seems like the luxury tax was the primary obstacle that got in the way of a reunion between Verlander and the Astros. Rome’s reporting suggests the same. While neither Crane nor Brown ever explicitly stated that the team needed to get back below the first luxury tax threshold, Rome reports that the club operated as if that were the case.

So, was last season the end of the line for Verlander and the Astros? Not necessarily. There is clearly a strong relationship between the two. Crane’s Astros have traded for Verlander twice, extended him once, and re-signed him in free agency once. Meanwhile, Verlander told Rome he would “always entertain the idea of coming back” to Houston. With that said, he is now 42 years old, and it’s not far-fetched to wonder if this season could be his last. Then again, Verlander hasn’t given any indication that he’s thinking about retirement. Last fall, he told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle) that he felt like he still had “a lot more to give pitching-wise.” He showed as much in his first start of the 2025 season, giving the Giants five innings of two-run ball, striking out five, and walking just one. If Verlander is looking for a team again next winter, and the Astros are willing to spend a bit more cash, it would hardly be surprising to see the two linked once again.