On Friday, the USDJPY pair found strong support precisely at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the September low to the October high. This critical midpoint sits at 149.377, where price action confirmed the level with a bounce near the session low.
The subsequent rally pushed the price through the declining 100-Hour Moving Average, which is currently located at 150.82. However, bullish momentum quickly faded after the MA break. Price then corrected lower, finding renewed support at the 38.2% retracement of that same recent upward move, which comes in at 150.296.
The market is now setting up a clear technical battle. The price has successfully retested the falling 100-HMA, which acts as immediate resistance. The key technical standoff is defined by:
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Resistance: The 100-HMA at 150.82. A sustained break above this level is required for buyers to signal a resumption of the broader uptrend.
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Support: The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 150.296. A decisive move below this level would confirm seller control and negate the recent recovery.
The current tight range suggests a high-stakes decision point, where the outcome of the battle for the 100-HMA will determine the short-term direction.
