The USDCHF fell sharply on Friday following Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, breaking below the 100- and 200-hour MAs and sliding through the 0.8040–0.8047 swing area. The decline extended under the 0.8017 low of the red box swing area, but sellers couldn’t sustain momentum.

In today’s trading, price has rebounded back inside the red box, though gains are limited. The recovery continues to stall beneath the 0.8040–0.8047 resistance zone, which also lines up with prior swing levels and the 50% midpoint of the July rally. Staying below keeps the bias tilted to the downside.

On the downside, the 0.8017 low of the red box is the first support to watch. A break below the 61.8% retracement of the July rally at 0.8010 would re-open the door for sellers, with the next targets seen near 0.7986–0.7994.

Bottom line: As long as price holds inside the “red box” there is a battle with the buyers and sellers. However, it will would take a move back above 0.8040 to 0.8047, to really start to disappoint sellers. Break 0.8017 and 0.80099 and more doors open for the sellers.