The USDCHF has been fluctuating over the past three trading days, with a low of 0.8758 yesterday and a high of 0.8824 today, setting the current range.

Key Technical Levels:

• The 200-day moving average (0.88165) has been a pivotal resistance through the 3 day up-and-down price action.:
  • Friday’s rally stalled at the 200-day MA level (green line).
  • Yesterday, the price briefly broke above the 200-day MA but lacked momentum and rotated back down.
  • Today, the price again moved above the 200-day MA to 0.8824, but sellers emerged at the falling 100-hour moving average.

The pair is now trading below both the 200-day MA (at 0.88165) and the 100-hour MA (at 0.88229), currently at 0.8802, signaling the sellers are still in control. It would take a move above both to give the buyers any hope for a bounce.

Broadening out to the 4-hour chart, the price action this week – and at the end of last week – saw the pair trade above and below the 50% of the move up from the September 2024 low at 0.87868. That says to me that the buyers and sellers are battling it at and unsure of the directional move. Traders are looking for the next shove with momentum.

So although there is a negative tilt with the price below the 200 day moving average, getting and staying below the 50% retracement and breaking below a swing area near 0.8776 and the low price from earlier this week at 0.8758 is still needed to give the sellers more confidence (and give the buyers additional cause for pause).