The USDCHF is showing signs of bullish momentum after a series of key technical tests and recoveries throughout the week. After bottoming at 0.87575 on Monday, the pair found support at critical levels on successive days. Tuesday’s low was set at 0.8772, right at the lower boundary of a swing area, while Wednesday’s decline stalled at the 0.8794 – 0.8799 swing zone. This steady pattern of higher lows laid the foundation for a move higher, and today’s price action is confirming that shift.

Yesterday, the 200-hour moving average (green line currently at 0.88363) acted as resistance, capping the upside move. However, today, the price successfully broke above this key moving average, indicating growing bullish sentiment. More importantly, the pair found support at the 200-day moving average (0.8815) earlier in the session today, reinforcing its role as a significant technical floor. With buyers now establishing control, the next upside hurdle is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.88637, which marks a key checkpoint in reversing the most recent downtrend that began from the February 28 high.

If buyers can sustain momentum above 0.88637, the next major target is the 50% retracement at 0.88965, a key midpoint that could determine whether the current move has legs for further gains. A break above this level would signal a more meaningful shift in sentiment, potentially leading to a stronger upside continuation.

Looking forward, the 200-hour moving average (0.88363) now shifts from resistance to key short term support. As long as the price remains above this level, the bullish case remains intact. If buyers can maintain control and push through 0.88637, the upside potential toward 0.88965 strengthens. Conversely, a move back below the 200-hour MA would indicate renewed selling pressure, shifting focus back to 0.8815 (200 day MA) and possibly lower levels.

With this week’s low at 0.87575, the longer-term picture still favors sellers, but today’s breakout suggests buyers are trying to shift the narrative. Keeping an eye on whether 0.88637 breaks or holds will be key in determining the next directional move for USDCHF.