The USDCAD tested its 100-hour moving average earlier today and found willing buyers, sparking a move higher. That rebound carried the pair back above the 200-day moving average for the second time in today’s trading (the first coming during the Asian Pacific session). However, just like the earlier attempt, the break quickly failed. In fact, this marks the fourth consecutive failed attempt at holding above the 200-day moving average, with similar rejections also seen on Thursday and Friday.

This leaves the market at a stalemate. The key question now is, who will win the tug-of-war? If sellers can push the pair back below the 100-hour moving average and hold it there, the downside bias will strengthen. Conversely, if buyers finally manage to sustain a break above the 200-day moving average, it would shift momentum back in their favor and open the door for further gains.

So far, neither side has been able to establish control, leaving traders watching these two moving averages as the defining battleground for the next directional move.