The USDCAD made a notable break higher earlier today, pushing above a key swing area between 1.4010 and 1.4026. Within that zone lies the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 trading range at 1.40212 — a level that acted as resistance last week but ultimately gave way. This week, buyers reclaimed control, driving the pair up to a session high of 1.4079 before dollar selling prompted a pullback.
That correction, however, found support near 1.4029, holding just above the top of the broken swing area and roughly 8 pips above the 38.2% retracement level. The pair has since rebounded modestly, trading around 1.4040.
The same story remains in play as noted in the earlier [see earlier post by clicking here] — the 1.4010–1.4026 zone now defines the risk for buyers. Staying above keeps the bullish bias intact and supports a potential push back toward the week’s highs. Conversely, a move back below that zone would represent a failed breakout, likely leading to buyer disappointment and a shift back toward a more neutral or bearish tone.
