The USDCAD pushed higher into yesterday’s close and extended that momentum through the Asian Pacific and early European sessions. The buyers drove the pair up toward the falling 100-hour moving average, but sellers re-emerged at that technical barrier and capped the advance.

In the North American session, the pair rotated lower and has now slipped back toward a key swing zone between 1.3968 and 1.3975. The price stalled against the top of that area and is currently trading near 1.39827.

What happens next will hinge on that swing zone. A break below 1.3968–75 would tilt the bias more firmly to the downside and re-open the path toward the 50% midpoint that halted Friday’s decline. Conversely, if the area continues to hold and the price moves back above the 38.2% retracement at 1.39847, traders could shift their focus once again toward the falling 100-hour moving average, currently near 1.40105 and trending lower.