The USDCAD is consolidating near last week’s lows, with price action remaining confined within a narrow 27-pip range so far today. On Friday, the pair fell sharply after Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole, driving the price down toward the swing-area low between 1.38127 and 1.38315. In early Asian trading today, the corrective high reached 1.3843 before sellers pushed the pair back to a session low near 1.38161—just above the bottom of that same swing area.

The muted activity is partly explained by the London holiday, which has suppressed volumes. Still, traders are keeping a close watch on the rising 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.38016. That average has acted as reliable support over the last 3–4 weeks, and its steady climb makes it an increasingly accessible downside test.

A break below 1.38016 would shift the bias in the short term, opening the door toward the 100-day moving average at 1.37676 and the 200-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.37539. Until then, buyers will try to lean against the support and keep the consolidation intact, while sellers look for momentum through that key technical floor.