The USD/CAD pair began the session near a key swing low support zone defined by 1.4010 and 1.40268. Price was also trading below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2025 trading range, located at 1.40212.
Despite the technical resistance, sellers initially controlled the market, pushing the price below the 1.4010 swing low. However, this bearish momentum failed to gain traction, as evidenced by seven hourly bars that closed below the level but saw no significant follow-through. The failure of the sellers to maintain the break suggests exhaustion and a missed opportunity.
The market reversed in the early European session when the price climbed back above the 200-Hour Moving Average currently positioned at 1.40172. This reversal forced sellers to cover their short positions, fueling a rally that peaked in the early North American session at a high of 1.4050.
The pair has since rotated back down and is testing the 100-hour MA at 1.40375. This level serves as a modest, immediate risk-defining support for intraday traders. Stronger, more critical support rests at the upper boundary of the initial swing area near 1.40268.
With the sellers having failed to take command, buyers are now fundamentally in control. To solidify the bullish turn, they must successfully defend the initial downside swing area and the 38.2% retracement, which now function as critical foundational support.
