The USDCAD is moving higher after a week or so of gradually lower lows, all of which were quickly reversed, signaling that sellers lacked conviction (see lows on the chart above). That dynamic shifted more definitively after the FOMC rate decision, which fueled broad USD buying and helped push the pair above the 100- and 200-hour moving averages. Those MAs, now sitting at 1.38107 and 1.38313, were retested earlier today when a modest dip found buyers—a bullish signal.

With momentum building, the price has now reached a key ceiling area from April between 1.38917 and 1.3904. This zone had acted as the high of the range for nearly two weeks and now serves as a major technical barrier. A break above 1.3904 would open the door toward the next resistance zone between 1.3924 and 1.3933. Above that, the April 15 high at 1.3977 becomes the next upside target, followed by a confluence of resistance near 1.4000, which includes the 38.2% retracement of the April drop (at 1.4003) and the 200-day moving average.

Support:

• 1.3860 = Highs from last Thursday

• 1.3810 to 1.3821 = 100/200 hour MAs

Resistance:

• 1.38917–1.3904 = April ceiling

• 1.3924–1.3933 = Swing area

• 1.3977 = April 15 high

• 1.4000–1.4003 = Psych level / 38.2% / 200-day MA

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