The USDCAD has moved higher this week, but it hasn’t been a
smooth ride.

The low for the week was set on Monday, with the total
trading range holding to a relatively narrow 70–75 pips. The high was reached
on Thursday, coming in near a swing high from August 1. Today’s pullback tested
the rising 100-hour moving average at 1.37807, but sellers could only push the
price to 1.3788 before a modest rebound to the upside.

Technically, the price spent much of Monday through
Thursday oscillating around its 100-day moving average — a level that often
serves as a key support or resistance zone. This week, however, it acted more
as a magnet, reflecting an ongoing tug-of-war between buyers and sellers.
Yesterday’s breakout above the 100-day moving average (now at 1.37707) has so
far been sustained, suggesting buyers have gained a slight edge.

Heading into next week, as well as a price to remain above
the 100 day moving average, the bias remains more to the upside. On the
topside, the high price from the week near 1.38193 and going back to August 1
as well, is the close target above that and the high price from last week at
1.38788 would be targeted.

There is room to
roam.

On the downside, move back below the 100 day moving average
and the sellers regain firm control from a technical perspective.

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