It’s about a 100+ pips drop in around ten minutes. I wouldn’t pin this as actual intervention but it might be another case of a ‘rate check’ being performed by Tokyo. The pair already dropped to around 159.20 from 160.50 levels earlier in the day, before a sharp drop now to test waters below the 158.00 mark.

If it were actual intervention, I reckon we’d see a more sustained 300-400 pips fall rather than this sort of dip. That especially with some bounces back to around 158.40-50 again amid some pushing and pulling.

As a reminder, a ‘rate check’ is also part of the final call in Tokyo’s playbook before intervention. It was definitely the case in past incidents even if there wasn’t one that followed up the previous ‘rate check’ earlier this year.