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USD/CAD takes the first Trump-Carney meeting in stride. Discussions were ‘constructive’

Carney didn’t get “Zelensky’d”.

That bar for today’s meeting between the North American leaders was to avoid a meltdown and as the picture above shows, it went well enough.

The Canadian PM is out with a readout now and said discussions were ‘constructive’ and ‘wide ranging’ and agreed to discuss more and have a meeting at the G7. Those are mostly coded words and not exactly great ones.

If you are a CAD bull, you would have hoped for some positive talk about a reset and a North American bloc but that wasn’t really the case. If you are a CAD bear, you would have hoped for a damaging breakdown.

Neither of those things happened so it looks like the status quo.

“I think we established a good basis today,” Carney said.

In the bigger picture today, the US dollar is selling off broadly and that has USD/CAD down 56 pips to 1.3769. The broader market is starting to worry about the lack of progress on trade deals.

I fear that a nine-day stock market rally has emboldened Trump to push harder on tariffs and that’s going to make trade deals with allies a very tough proposition.

More from Carney:

  • There were no decisions on tariffs today
  • It is a very complex situation
  • I was clear with Trump that Canada will never be for sale
  • We made progress, had very comprehensive, tangible exchanges
  • There will be meetings between ministers and officials
  • Progress would not necessarily be evident during negotiations
  • This is the point at which serious discussion begins
  • Asked Trump to stop calling Canada the 51st state today
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