- Final December reading was 53.3
- 1-year inflation 4.2% vs 4.1% prior
- 5 year inflation 3.4% vs 3.2% prior
- Current conditions 52.4 vs 50.7 prior
- Expectations 55.0 vs 54.6 prior
UMich prelim Dec
This isn’t a great economic indicator as answers are increasingly politicized and the inflation numbers are volatile. There was a time when this was tier-2 economic data but it’s been slowly downgraded. It’s final moment in the sun was in covid when a jump in inflation expectations caused a panicky Fed to tilt towards deeper rate hikes. That jump was later revised away in an embarrassing moment for the Powell Fed.
As for this report, it corresponds with a better mood from consumers. Spending over the holidays was solid, though not spectacular.
