The U.S. will release 172 million barrels from the SPR as part of a global stockpile drawdown.

Separately, intelligence assessments indicate Iran’s government remains stable despite weeks of bombardment.

Summary:

• The U.S. will release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

• The move is part of a 400 million barrel coordinated release by the International Energy Agency.

• Deliveries are expected to begin next week and continue over roughly 120 days.

• The intervention aims to cool oil prices following supply shocks linked to the Iran conflict.

• Separate U.S. intelligence assessments say Iran’s government is not at risk of imminent collapse.

• Analysts say the clerical leadership remains cohesive despite heavy strikes and the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei.

• Israeli officials privately acknowledge there is no certainty the war will topple Iran’s regime.

• The findings suggest the conflict — and its impact on energy markets — could persist longer than initially expected.

The United States and its allies are moving to stabilise global oil markets as the conflict involving Iran continues to roil energy supplies, while new intelligence assessments suggest Iran’s government remains firmly in control despite weeks of military strikes.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Washington will release 172 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as part of a coordinated effort among members of the International Energy Agency to ease supply pressures. The broader initiative will see a combined 400 million barrels released by the 32-member IEA group.

According to Wright, the U.S. portion of the emergency release will begin next week and is expected to take roughly 120 days to deliver to the market. The move follows a sharp surge in crude prices triggered by supply disruptions and geopolitical risks tied to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.

Officials hope the coordinated stockpile release will help cool global oil prices and reassure markets about the availability of supply as shipping security concerns grow in the Gulf and traders price in a rising geopolitical risk premium.

The SPR drawdown represents one of the largest coordinated interventions in oil markets in recent years and underscores the urgency among major economies to contain the economic fallout from the conflict.

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At the same time, U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Iran’s leadership structure remains intact and is not at risk of imminent collapse, according to several sources familiar with the latest reports.

Multiple intelligence analyses compiled in recent days conclude the Iranian government retains control over the population and continues to function despite nearly two weeks of intense U.S. and Israeli bombardment. The findings suggest that expectations of rapid political upheaval in Tehran may be misplaced.

The assessment comes after the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28 during the opening phase of the strikes. Despite that unprecedented development, analysts say the clerical leadership and security apparatus appear to remain cohesive.

Israeli officials have also privately acknowledged that there is no guarantee the military campaign will lead to the collapse of Iran’s ruling establishment, according to a senior official familiar with internal discussions.

The intelligence picture suggests the conflict could extend longer than initially anticipated, complicating efforts by U.S. policymakers to quickly stabilise the region and contain the impact on global energy markets.