In the video above, I take a look at the technicals driving the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – as the price action defines the bias, the risk and targets during the news driven market. That news will shift – at least temporarily to the US jobs report and the retail sale.

The US jobs report will take center stage at 8:30 AM ET. The consensus for the upcoming U.S. non-farm payrolls report is for a softer headline job gain of around 59,000, following January’s strong reading that was boosted by seasonal factors typically seen at the start of the year. One notable downside factor is the United Nurses Associations of California strike, which could subtract roughly 31,000 workers from the payroll count since those employees did not work during the survey period. This would represent the largest strike-related impact on the labor report since the Boeing strike in October 2024 and should reverse in the March data once those workers return. In addition, winter storms and poor weather in late January may have disrupted the household survey and weighed on February reporting. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%, though some analysts see risks of a slight uptick to 4.4%, with several major banks flagging that as a possible outcome despite keeping 4.3% as their base case. Overall, markets are likely to interpret the data cautiously given these temporary distortions.

The skew of estimates is showing:

Non-Farm Payrolls (Last 130K)

• -9K to 125K range of estimates
• 40K-75K range most clustered
• 59K consensus

Unemployment Rate (Last 4.3%)

• 4.4% (36%)
• 4.3% (58%) – consensus
• 4.2% (6%)

Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y (Last 3.7%)

• 3.7% (85%) – consensus
• 3.6% (12%)
• 3.5% (3%)

Average Hourly Earnings M/M (Last month 0.4%)

• 0.4% (5%)
• 0.3% (85%) – consensus
• 0.2% (7%)
• 0.1% (3%)

Average Weekly Hours (Last month 34.3 hours)

• 34.4 (3%)
• 34.3 (77%) – consensus
• 34.2 (20%)

In addition to the jobs report, US retail sales for January will be released with the headline expectations of -0.3% versus 0.0% last month. The ex auto is expected 0.0% unchanged from the previous month. The control group is expected at 0.2% versus -0.1% last monthperiod.

Going into the data, the expectations of no cut in March is 99%. The market is pricing and 35 basis points of cuts between now and the end of the year. Last week, the market had Preston 59 basis points. Higher oil prices from the Iran war is the main concern.

Meanwhile in Iran and the middle east:

Military escalation

• U.S. and Israeli strikes continue across Iran, with explosions reported in Tehran and other areas as the conflict enters roughly its seventh day.

• The campaign is targeting missile bases, military infrastructure, and nuclear-related sites as part of the ongoing U.S.–Israel operation against Iran.

• Iran has responded with missile and drone attacks on U.S. bases and allied countries in the Gulf, including Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain. Rumblings that the US dragged the oil states into the war are starting to surface.

Trump comments

• President Trump said Iran is being “demolished ahead of schedule,” claiming Iranian air defenses and air force capabilities have been largely destroyed.

• He has also suggested the U.S. should have a role in determining Iran’s next leadership, adding political uncertainty around the conflict.

Iran’s response

• Iranian officials warn they are prepared for a possible U.S. ground invasion and threaten heavy casualties if that occurs.

• Tehran continues to launch missile and drone strikes across the region, including attacks on Gulf infrastructure and shipping routes.

Regional expansion

• Israeli strikes have also hit targets in Lebanon, especially Hezbollah-linked areas in Beirut and the Bekaa Valley.

• The war has already spread across the region with attacks on U.S. bases and shipping in the Gulf, raising concerns about broader escalation.

Crude oil futures are trading at $86.10 up $5.09 from the settled price yesterday or 6.28% in volatile trading. The high price has reached $86.60. The low price is at $78.24.

There is a lot of Fedspeak today with Waller currently speaking. A slew of other speakers will be speaking today. It is the last opportunity for the Fed members to speak as the Fed goes into the “blackout period” ahead of the next Fed meeting on March 18.