The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 3.0 points in March to 95.8, leaving it below its 52-year average of 98.0. The last time the Optimism Index fell below its historical average was April 2025. The Uncertainty Index rose 4 points from February to 92, well above its historical average of 68.

NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said: “The 20% Small Business Deduction and other supportive small business tax provisions in the Working Families Tax Cut Act have had many positives for small business owners. However, the dramatic spike in oil prices has spooked consumers and owners alike. Small business owners are having to absorb those higher input costs and pass them along to their customers.”

This is not a market-moving report and a drop in optimism in March was widely expected for obvious reasons (US-Iran war).