- Prior month -0.7% revised to -0.8%
- Leading index -1.0% versus -0.9% estimate
- 38 or 41 months have been negative.
- The -1.0% is the loweest since March 2023
Other details from the Census department:
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LEI (Leading Economic Index):
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Fell sharply by 1.0% in April 2025 to 99.4 (2016=100)
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March decline revised to -0.8% (from -0.7%)
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Down 2.0% over the last six months (same rate as previous 6 months)
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Largest monthly drop since March 2023
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Most components deteriorated, especially consumer expectations, building permits, and average workweek in manufacturing
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Still not low enough to trigger a recession signal
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Conference Board forecasts 1.6% GDP growth in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024
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Tariff impacts expected to hit hardest in Q3 2025
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CEI (Coincident Economic Index):
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Rose by 0.1% in April 2025 to 114.8
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Up 1.1% over past six months (vs. 0.9% prior)
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All four components contributed, but industrial production was weakest
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LAG (Lagging Economic Index):
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Increased by 0.3% in April 2025 to 119.3
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Reversed March’s 0.1% decline
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Six-month growth rate: +0.8%, reversing the prior -0.8% trend
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The components for the month show:
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
