Renaissance Macro Research flagged a shift in U.S. labor market risks, pointing to hiring rather than layoffs as the growing concern.

Citing the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), RenMac said the mean probability of losing a job remains relatively low. However, the perceived probability of finding new work if laid off plunged to 44.9%, marking the lowest reading in the history of the survey. The chart shows how job-finding expectations have steadily eroded even as job-loss fears remain contained, raising questions about the resilience of the employment outlook.