• Prior was +2.7%
• m/m CPI +0.2% vs +0.3% expected
• Prior m/m reading was +0.3%
• Real weekly earnings +0.5% vs -0.3% prior (revised to -0.5%)

Core inflation :

• Ex food and energy +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y expected
• Prior ex food and energy +2.5%
• Core m/m +0.3% vs +0.3% exp
• Prior core m/m +0.2%
• Core goods +1.1%
• Core services +2.9% y/y
• Supercore +2.7% y/y

Unrounded numbers:

• Core +0.281% m/m seasonally adjusted, +0.437% NSA

There has been a slight dovish shift in Fed pricing following the data and we can see that in a softer US dollar as well. S&P 500 futures are now flat, erasing the earlier decline.

Notably, October CPI data was not collected due to a government shutdown, and November data collection began later than usual, capturing more seasonal holiday discounting. Economists widely cautioned that these disruptions may have artificially depressed the readings. Meat prices were a standout concern, soaring 8.9% annually — the sharpest increase since 2022 — with raw ground beef up nearly 15%. While the cooler-than-expected report was welcomed by markets and supported the case for continued Fed rate cuts, analysts stressed that the December report would provide a clearer picture of underlying inflation trends.

On a two-month basis (September to November), the all items index rose 0.2% seasonally adjusted, with core CPI also up 0.2% over that span, implying roughly 0.1% monthly readings for both October and November. Shelter costs, typically one of the stickiest inflation components, rose just 0.2% over the two-month period, slowing sharply from a 3.6% annual pace in September to 3.0% in November. Food prices increased 2.6% annually, down from 3.1% in September, while the energy index jumped 4.2% year-over-year, driven by a 6.9% surge in electricity costs.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 2.7% on an annual basis in November 2025, a notable deceleration from the 3.0% pace recorded in September. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, increased 2.6% year-over-year — its lowest reading since March 2021.