The inflation scare is a being shown in the imported export price data for the month of April

• import prices for April +1.9% versus 1.0% estimate. Prior month revised higher to 0.9% from 0.8% previously reported.
• Export prices for April +3.3% versus 1.1% expected. Prior month revised lower to 1.5% from 1.6% previously reported

Details from Import prices:

• U.S. import prices rose +1.9% in April after gains of +0.9% in March and +1.0% in February.
• Import prices year-over-year increased +4.2%, the largest annual gain since October 2022.
• Fuel import prices surged +16.3% in April after rising +10.0% in March.
• The monthly increase in fuel prices was the largest since March 2022 (+17.8%).
• Import petroleum and petroleum product prices climbed +19.0% in April.
• Import natural gas prices fell -22.1% in April.
• Fuel import prices year-over-year increased +20.0%.
• Petroleum and petroleum product prices rose +22.0% year-over-year.
• Import natural gas prices were up just +0.1% year-over-year.
• Nonfuel import prices increased +0.8% in April after a +0.2% gain in March.
• Nonfuel import prices year-over-year rose +2.9%, the largest annual increase since October 2022.
• Higher prices for capital goods, nonfuel industrial supplies and materials, consumer goods excluding autos, and foods/beverages contributed to the increase.
• Lower prices for automotive vehicles, parts, and engines partially offset the gains.

Details of the export prices:

• U.S. export prices increased +3.3% in April.
• Export prices year-over-year rose +8.8%, the largest annual increase since September 2022 (+9.8%).
• Agricultural export prices increased +1.6% in April after a +0.6% rise in March.
• The April increase was the largest monthly gain since October 2024 (+2.1%).
• Higher prices for fruit and meat helped drive the increase.
• Agricultural export prices year-over-year rose +4.3%, led by higher prices for soybeans and meat.
• Nonagricultural export prices increased +3.4% in April after gains of +1.6% in March and +2.1% in February.
• Nonagricultural export prices year-over-year rose +9.3%.
• Higher prices for industrial supplies and materials, capital goods, and consumer goods excluding autos drove the increase.
• Lower prices for automotive vehicles, parts, and engines partially offset the gains.
• Nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials prices jumped +7.3% in April after a +3.8% increase in March.
• Higher prices for petroleum and chemicals more than offset lower prices for nonferrous metals.
• Capital goods export prices increased +0.7% in April.
• Higher prices for computers, semiconductors, and industrial machinery offset lower prices for civilian aircraft and aircraft parts.
• Consumer goods export prices excluding autos increased +0.5% in April.
• Export automotive vehicle, parts, and engine prices fell -0.1%, the first monthly decline since July 2025

With the CPI and the PPI misbehaving in, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has an inflation problem to start his term. Talk from Fed officials yesterday was characterized by “inflation is too high” views.

Meanwhile the US yields are lower today with 2 year -2.5 basis points and 10 year down -3.6 basis points.