Summary:

• US eases H200 export rules to case-by-case review

• Third-party testing and supply certifications required

• Shift from blanket denial to conditional pathway

• China signals purchases only in “special circumstances”

• Nvidia shares edge higher, uncertainty remains

The United States has taken a calibrated step toward easing export restrictions on advanced AI semiconductors, revising licensing rules to potentially allow shipments of Nvidia’s H200 chips to China under tightly controlled conditions.

A final rule published by the Bureau of Industry and Security at the Department of Commerce shifts policy from a blanket presumption of denial to a case-by-case license review for certain advanced computing commodities exported to China and Macau. The rule covers Nvidia’s H200 and equivalent chips, as well as some less-advanced products, subject to strict verification requirements.

Before any exports can proceed, shipments must undergo independent third-party testing in the United States to confirm technical AI performance characteristics. Exporters must also certify that there is sufficient domestic supply of the chips, that production for China will not divert foundry capacity away from U.S. end-users, and that recipients have demonstrated adequate security procedures.

The change marks a notable adjustment in Washington’s approach to AI chip controls, creating a narrow pathway for exports while preserving safeguards designed to prevent technology diversion. The Commerce Department emphasised that the rule does not represent a broad reopening, but rather a more targeted licensing framework with multiple checkpoints.

Markets read the move as modestly supportive for Nvidia, with shares rising about 0.5% on the day. However, the upside was capped by signals from China that access to H200 chips will be approved only under “special circumstances,” including limited use cases such as university research. Officials have yet to define the criteria, leaving demand uncertain.

The result is a policy tug-of-war: Washington outlines a conditional route for exports, while Beijing signals selective gatekeeping on the buyer side. For Nvidia and the broader AI chip sector, the development reduces outright downside risk but keeps shipment volumes, timing, and revenue contribution highly uncertain.