Expectations for a breakthrough in U.S.-China trade relations remain subdued despite Trump’s announcement of a potential deal. According to Mark Williams, Chief Asia Economist at Capital Economics, the agreement focuses narrowly on non-tariff issues—such as rare earth export controls—while leaving core trade tensions unaddressed.

Crucially, existing tariffs remain untouched. Although the resumption of dialogue may signal room for future progress, Williams cautions that the bilateral relationship is “in far worse shape than a few months ago,” limiting near-term optimism.

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