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US assessment: Iran could keep Hormuz shut for anywhere from one to six months

CNN is out with a report highlighting the difficulty of reopening the Strait of Hormuz:

US officials are furiously trying to avert a potential months-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz, privately acknowledging that reopening the key waterway is a problem without a clear solution

The report from the Defense Intelligence Agency said it could remain shut from 1-6 months, citing four sources familiar.

An official pushed back against the six-month scenario, saying:

the six month closure of the Strait of Hormuz is an impossibility and completely unacceptable to the Secretary of War

Oil is higher on this report but it’s notable that this assessment isn’t current, it was said to be circulating “in recent weeks” which suggests it was prepared before the war and wouldn’t necessarily reflect damage since or indications of Iranian capabilities.

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