The U.S. 10-year yield is down nearly 10 basis points on the day, trading at 4.148%. Earlier, it dipped to 4.133%, just shy of the 2025 low of 4.108% set in early March. The recent rebound in yields peaked on March 27 at 4.40%, briefly surpassing the 50% retracement level of the February-to-March decline at 4.384% (see chart above). However, that move was short-lived, and yields have since resumed their downward trend.
Today’s drop broke below several key support levels: Monday’s low near 4.18%, the March 20 low at 4.174%, and the March 11 low at 4.157%. On the daily chart, the yield is now trading back below its 200-day moving average, currently at 4.226%. While there have been four intraday breaks below this average in March, none led to a sustained trend, keeping the broader outlook uncertain.
That said, a more bearish technical bias is emerging. Last week’s bounce to 4.400% stalled just below the 100-day moving average at 4.422% (see daily chart below), which has now capped yields since February 25. If downside momentum continues, attention may soon shift to the 2024 low of 3.605% set on September 11 over time.
