British consumer spending showed modest growth in March. There do seem to be signs of strain beginning to emerge beneath the surface.

British Retail Consortium (BRC) data:

• total retail sales rose 1.1% year-on-year in March, matching February’s pace
• like-for-like sales also held steady at 0.9%

BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson highlighted the resilience of both food and non-food categories, suggesting a quiet strengthening in consumer appetite despite geopolitical pressures.

In contrast, Barclays’ broader measure of UK consumer spending — which includes debit and credit card transactions — painted a more subdued picture:

• spending rose just 0.5% year-on-year, down from 1.0% in February and falling short of inflation
• supermarket sales dropped 2.6%, although warmer weather did support spending at garden centres and specialty food retailers

Barclays chief UK economist Jack Meaning warned of a possible softening in consumer activity ahead.

• “We expect spending to remain muted through mid-2025, before gradually recovering into 2026 as interest rate cuts and stabilising conditions take hold”