The Swiss franc may hold firm even if the Swiss National Bank (SNB) were to cut rates back into negative territory, according to UBS Global Wealth Management. The franc remains the world’s preferred safe-haven currency, and in a “risk-off” environment negative rates alone would not be enough to weaken it.
UBS noted that such a policy shift would only be considered under severe conditions—such as a sharp deterioration in the global or European macro outlook, or a meaningful narrowing of the interest-rate gap with the European Central Bank that triggered sustained franc strength. In the meantime, the currency’s haven status is likely to dominate, cushioning it against rate-driven downside pressure.
