Well, if there was any question about whether Trump was watching the oil futures open, it’s been laid to rest. He wrote on Truth Social:

Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of
the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for
U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace. ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK
DIFFERENTLY! President DJT

Now, he’s obviously right but ending this conflict might not be as easy as Trump think.

What I find most-notable about this message is three things:

1) There is some urgency here with him addressing oil prices less than an hour after the futures open. He notoriously hates high oil prices and endlessly blamed Joe Biden for high gasoline prices and inflation. This isn’t going to poll well.

2) I would highlight “when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over.” That’s maybe the clearest indication of the current war aims, or what it will take for Trump to declare victory and move on. I would say that he’s moving those goalposts closer with this message.

WTI crude oil is up $16.50 to $107.28 today and gasoline prices are what everyone in the world will be talking about on Monday morning, and that’s going to be tough for Trump to deflect.

3) Finally, he’s not signalling any short term help for oil prices here. The market might take that as a sign that no help is on the way in the short term, including the SPR or a banning of US exports.

S&P 500 futures are down 1.5% and that is a decent decline but also reflects a market that thinks oil prices will quickly fall once the US stops the bombs. The big tail risk is that drags into April, May or beyond.