The NCAA tournament starts soon, and fans are filling out their brackets for fun, to compete against friends, or to compete for a prize. Filling out a March Madness bracket is unpredictable, but recent trends can give you an edge. Here are five insights to help you make smarter picks.

1. No. 12 and No. 13 Seeds Pull Off Upsets

The No. 12 vs. No. 5 matchup is one of the most common upset spots. No. 12 seeds have won 35.3% of these games (55-101). Meanwhile, No. 13 seeds have a 21.15% win rate (33-123) against No. 4 seeds. At least one lower seed from these matchups usually advances, making them smart upset picks.

2. At Least One Double-Digit Seed Will Make the Sweet 16

A double-digit seed has reached the Sweet 16 in 16 straight tournaments. No. 11 seeds are particularly dangerous, with 7 of the last 17 advancing to the second weekend. Look for mid-major teams with experienced rosters or high-scoring offenses.

3. First Four Teams Often Make Noise

Teams that win in the First Four often carry momentum into the main bracket. Only once has the tournament passed without a First Four team reaching the Round of 32. Recent examples like UCLA (2021 Final Four) and VCU (2011 Final Four) show the potential of these teams. Look at a team like North Carolina to potentially sneak deep into the tournament this year.

4. No. 8 Seeds Can Make Deep Runs

No. 8 seeds have had surprising success in March Madness:

• 22.2% (28 of 126) have reached the Sweet 16.
• 7.1% (9 of 126) have made the Elite Eight.
• 4.8% (6 of 126) have reached the Final Four.
• 3.2% (4 of 126) have played in the national championship.

If you’re picking an No. 8 seed to go far, look for teams with NBA talent or strong defenses. Could Gonzaga be the surprise package this year?

5. No. 1 Seeds Win the Championship Most Often

No. 1 seeds win more than any other seed (duh, obviously). 13 of the last 17 national champions were No. 1 seeds. If you’re unsure about your champion pick, history says a top seed is the safest bet.

Use these trends to guide your picks, but expect surprises. A balanced bracket with smart upsets and strong top seeds gives you the best shot at winning.

For more projections, check out our 2025 March Madness AI predictions.