Rate cuts by year-end
- Fed: 46 bps (95% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
- ECB: 25 bps (91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
- BoE: 50 bps (88% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
- BoC: 17 bps (89% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
- RBA: 65 bps (91% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
- RBNZ: 37 bps (76% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
- SNB: 10 bps (83% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
Rate hikes by year-end
- BoJ: 19 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
The US-Japan trade deal boosted the market pricing for a BoJ hike by year-end as that’s what the central bank has been waiting for before deciding on the next rate adjustment.
Moreover, the Japanese ruling bloc lost the majority in the recent upper house election, so we could see Ishiba make some concessions on the fiscal policy side to keep his agenda going. That should boost growth expectations due to more fiscal support and might eventually force the BoJ to hike more than expected.
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This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
