Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 80 bps (76% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

• ECB: 64 bps (92% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

• BoE: 52 bps (66% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

• BoC: 55 bps (62% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

• RBA: 74 bps (83% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

• RBNZ: 66 bps (76% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• SNB: 15 bps (74% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 31 bps (77% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

The easing expectations increased for all the central banks although for the Fed it was more aggressive which also weighed on the US Dollar in the short-term.

For the BoJ, the market just slightly decreased the expectations for the third rate hike this year because of the risks to the Japanese economy which have also been reflected by the selloff in the Nikkei. In fact, the Japanese Yen has been driven more by global events rather than domestic fundamentals as another rate hike has been priced in a long time ago.

This just shows how all the markets are interconnected and how the unveiling of the US tariffs plan on April 2 will be a global event.