1) 2025 GDP

In December, the median bumped up to 2.1% from 2.0% for this year’s growth. The projection is now 1.7%

2) 2025 PCE inflation

In December, the PCE inflation forecast rose to 2.5% from 2.1% . The projection is now 2.7% for the headline for 2025. For the core, the PCE moved from 2.5% to 2.8% at the end of 2025

3) 2026 PCE inflation

For 2026, in December they rose to 2.1%. IT is not seen at 2.2%. For the core in 2026, they see the rate remaining at 2.2%

4) The unemployment rate

The unemployment rate in the February non-farm payrolls report was 4.1% compared to 4.0% expected. That adds some downside risks to unemployment rate forecasts, which sit at 4.3% for 2025, 2026 and 2027. I don’t think a one-tick difference here is going to be overly meaningful but if it’s combined with hawkish comments in the statement, it could carry more weight.

5) The dots

The median dot for this year is 3.9% and there is a strong cluster around that. It compares to market pricing, which is at 3.77%. I don’t see that as a material difference as the curve always prices in some level of black swan risk. Further out, the Fed may signal more caution around rate cuts from 3.4% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027.