The road to the Final Four tightens, and in the East Region, two blue-blood programs collide. Duke, the No. 1 seed in the region and a fixture in March’s most meaningful moments, meets fourth-seeded Arizona in a heavyweight Sweet 16 matchup—one that feels more Final Four than regional semifinal.
For Duke, the path to this point has been crisp and commanding. A first-round win over Mount St. Mary’s set the tone. A businesslike dismantling of Baylor in the Round of 32 only confirmed what many suspected entering the tournament: this is a team built to win it all.
Arizona’s road was bumpier. The Wildcats had to claw back from a 15-point deficit against Oregon, leaning heavily on the shot-making brilliance of Caleb Love and the relentless rebounding of Tobe Awaka. But they survived. And now they arrive in Newark ready for a rematch—and revenge.
Duke vs. Arizona Picks and Best Bets
All Duke vs. Arizona odds are from BetOnline and are correct as of Tuesday, Mar. 25.
- Spread
Duke -9.5 - Moneyline
Duke -465, Arizona +400 - Over/Under
153.5 - Game Time
9:39 p.m. ET - Location
Prudential Center | Newark, NJ - How To Watch
CBS
The Best vs. the Rest
Statistically, Duke is the most complete team in the country. Ranked No. 1 in KenPom’s overall efficiency, the Blue Devils boast the top offense in America and the fourth-ranked defense. It’s a rare blend of pace, precision, and grit.
Arizona, meanwhile, checks in at 13th in the same rankings, a testament to their balanced attack. They’re top-15 in both offense and defense, but there’s a noticeable gap in depth and execution—especially late in games.
They have the best player in the country AND a couple other freshmen who look top 10 draft pick worthy.
Duke. Wagon. pic.twitter.com/Ws1M5pAoCD
— John Fanta (@John_Fanta) March 23, 2025
The two teams already met once this season, back on November 22 in Tucson. Duke silenced the crowd at McKale Center, controlling the game from tip to buzzer in a 69-55 victory. The Blue Devils covered as 2-point favorites, and the game fell well short of its lofty total, hinting at the defensive intensity we could see again Thursday night.
This time around, the spotlight burns brighter, particularly on Duke’s freshman phenom, Cooper Flagg. He’s the matchup nightmare every coach dreads and every neutral fan tunes in to watch. Flagg can defend multiple positions, initiate offense, rebound, and hit big shots in big moments. He is, simply put, the best player in college basketball.
Arizona has options. Trey Townsend and Carter Bryant—a future first-rounder himself—bring length and defensive versatility. But slowing Flagg down is a tall order. And as we’ve seen throughout March, you don’t stop Flagg. You hope to survive him.
Duke’s Depth: A Closing Statement
Where Duke separates itself is in its depth. The Blue Devils can roll out waves of athletic, skilled wings and guards. They defend as a unit. They share the ball. And when opponents start to bend, Duke breaks them.
Arizona may hang around early. They may even take a lead. But late in the second half, when the game gets tight, Duke’s conditioning, experience, and roster depth will start to show.
Best Bets: Duke -9.5
This is a moment built for Duke. A No. 1 seed, a generational freshman, and a team rounding into form at exactly the right time. Arizona has fight, no doubt—but the Blue Devils have finish.
Duke pulls away late, and with it, sends a message to the rest of the bracket: the road to a national title may run through Newark, but it belongs to Durham.
