Standard Chartered forecasts Bitcoin (BTC) will reach a fresh all-time high around USD 120,000 in Q2 2025, driven by strategic shifts in global capital flows away from US assets. The rally is expected to extend through the year, with a target of USD 200,000 by year-end.

Key Points:

• Capital Reallocation: Institutional investors are reallocating away from US equities and bonds, increasingly viewing BTC as an alternative reserve asset.

• Macro Indicators: A rising term premium, reflecting growing concerns over US fiscal sustainability and inflation, is strengthening BTC’s macro case.

• Accumulation Trends: Large BTC holders (‘whales’) continue to accumulate, a bullish signal for price action.

• ETF Flows: Funds have been rotating out of gold ETFs into Bitcoin ETFs, reinforcing the narrative of BTC as “digital gold”.

• Time-of-Day Analysis: BTC price trends show sustained upside during US trading hours, suggesting that flows are primarily US-driven.

Conclusion:

Standard Chartered sees Bitcoin as a prime beneficiary of global de-dollarization and capital rotation themes, especially amid eroding confidence in US assets. With momentum accelerating, BTC is forecast to hit $120K in Q2 and $200K by year-end, assuming macro and flow trends continue.

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