I highlighted the fall into the opening gap earlier today and now it’s entirely closed. The index was down by 0.5% at the lows a few minutes ago and is now trading at +0.3%.
SPX 10 mins
The question in the market is whether ‘reciprocal but not reciprocal’ tariffs will go into effect at midnight along with 50% tariffs on China and there were many betting Trump would back off. There is no evidence of that yet.
I would argue that even if we go back to 10% across-the-board tariffs, then we still have a problem in the economy, likely retaliation and too many rate cuts priced in.
