Here is something to think about:
Today Mexico announced that they are holding back on announcing retaliatory tariffs until Sunday.
Sunday is also the day when Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s successor in the Liberal Party — and the new Prime Minister — is announced. I fully expect that to be former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney to be picked, as he leads in the party polls.
Would that be a good time for a reset?
Carney will almost certainly call an immediate election as well, which are typically 36-78 days which would mean sometime between April 14 and May 26, likely at the shorter end.
If they’re not scaled back on Sunday, they will dominate the election, which had previously looked like it would be a coronation for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre but he’s slipped badly in the polls because of his perceived softness and similarities to Trump. So in a stroke of irony, Trump may have kneecapped a political ally in Canada.
The latest Canadian poll from Angus Reid
In terms of markets, that might set up some optimism into the weekend trade but if we don’t see a reversal, it could mean a brutal day next Monday.
