US 10-year Treasury yields are down in 9 of the past 11 days as fears about economic weakness percolate. Those really kicked off after a series of soft consumer and business sentiment reports. Yesterday jobless claims jumped and today there was more fuel today with brutal drop in the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker.

That’s left 10s at 4.23% from a high of 4.66% on Feb 12 and 4.80% in mid-January. Critically, that has 10-year yields now below the bottom end of the Fed’s 4.25-4.50% range and 3-month t-bill rates at 4.30%. That’s an inversion of the yield curve which is a classic front-runner of a recession.

That said, classic hasn’t seemed to apply lately as the curve inverted from 2022 until late last year and we’re still waiting for the recession.