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Silver falls more than 8%, gold down 3%. What’s next

Silver certainly got its moment in the spotlight last week as a parabolic move went stratospheric. The put silver on front pages around the world and prompted some hand-wringing from the world’s richest man.

There are rumors about squeezes and margin calls prompting the last leg of the move on Friday and now that air is coming out of the market. Silver is down $6.61/oz to $72.36. It’s the largest one-day nominal fall ever, but amazingly, it still doesn’t erase Friday’s surge.

silver daily

Technically, the 38.2% retracement of the rally since November 21 is at $70.46 and that should lend some support. The 50% level clocks in at $66.31.

Precious metals are a sentiment-driven market right now but the silver market is much smaller than gold. That gives retail an outsized influence compared to gold, which is largely driven by central bank buying and selling.

Gold has also been hit by profit taking today but it’s down 3% after also hitting record highs late last week.

We’re also in a tricky time of year for trading. Liquidity is low everywhere and that can lead to outsized swings as hedge funds are reluctant to lean against excesses and market makers limit participation.

For the year ahead, the market appears to be tightly grasping onto the idea that Trump will nominate a dovish Fed member and continue to intervene in the economy in ways that makes the US dollar a less-attractive store of value. The gold rally really kicked off in late-August when he fired the head of the BLS — the agency that publishes non-farm payrolls.

He is also back to talking about the US taking over Greenland and the administration has pledged tariffs even if the Supreme Court blocks the current tariff regime.

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