Global Affairs Correspondent for Axios, Barack Ravid, said on X that a senior US official denied Iranian missiles hit a US warship. This has triggered a quick reversal in earlier moves after Fars News Agency reported that two missiles struck a US warship near Jask Island after it allegedly ignored repeated warnings to exit Iranian territorial waters.

We are likely to get more of such conflicting reports in the next days as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz remain high. This should keep oil prices elevated and risk sentiment a bit more in check as things could escalate very quickly.

For now, US stocks are ignoring these risks on expectations that eventually the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened, but the longer this stalemate drags on, the higher the risk that the Fed would need to adopt a tightening bias.