Rolls-Royce (LSE:RR.) shares have been quite stubborn in 2026 so far, as they’ve mostly stayed between the £11 and £13 mark.

There almost seems to be a yo-yo effect. Just 12 days ago (Friday 15 May), the share price was £11.40. Now it’s £12.77.

If an investor had put £10,000 into the company’s shares back then, they would have £11,019 today. That’s not a bad profit for a less-than-two-week-old investment.

Now, can the company’s shares finally break free of the up-and-down movement they’ve been experiencing so far this year?

What are the obstacles?

There are a few risks and obstacles that may get in the way of Rolls-Royce shares moving higher. I’ll discuss two of the key ones here.

Firstly, and probably the most potentially disruptive to the business in the short term, is the war in Iran. The effect this is having on jet fuel supply could be detrimental to the firm’s largest division, civil aerospace.

Some airlines are already cancelling flights for the summer holidays, which means there could be a slowdown in demand for Rolls-Royce aircraft engines and service contracts. Even though the firm is still expecting engine flying hours to grow to 115%–120% of 2019’s for the rest of 2026, this risk can’t be ignored.

Secondly, the firm’s shares are currently quite expensive. They’re currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 32.9. This isn’t a cheap valuation. Any negative news could therefore see the company’s share price falling.

Having said all that, I still believe the positives surrounding the company outweigh the obstacles it faces.

Catalysts for success

While there are certainly risks surrounding Rolls-Royce, ultimately, I believe it has plenty more catalysts for success.

My favourite ones revolve around the firm’s power systems division and its investments in small modular reactors (SMRs).

Over the next few years, there’s an anticipation of massive spending on AI infrastructure. This is expected to be in the trillions of dollars. AI data centres, in particular, will need to be powered somehow.

Rolls-Royce could benefit massively from this by being one of the key players powering the AI revolution.

In the company’s latest trading update, it reported that it already has a £7.3bn backlog in orders in this division. This highlights the strong demand for its power systems.

Moreover, the company has been involved in revolutionising energy sources. Its SMRs are cleaner for the environment, quicker and cheaper to produce, and more efficient than traditional nuclear energy. It’s already working on some for the UK and the Czech Republic.

In the short term, anything could happen to the company’s share price. It could fall back down to £11, or bounce back up to £13 and beyond.

But overall, given the potential the firm has, I think Rolls-Royce shares could thrive in the long term. Therefore, I think investors could consider buying some of its shares.

Should you invest £5,000 in Rolls-Royce Plc right now?

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Muhammad Cheema does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.